Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Tim Stützle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (1)1–3
- P215:48Gustav Forsling Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (1), Matthew Tkachuk (2)1–2
- P110:42Shane Pinto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P15:52Tim Stützle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (1), Jake Sanderson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:52Tim Stützle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (1), Jake Sanderson (1)FLA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 45% → 60% +15OTT 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P110:42Shane Pinto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 61% → 75% +14OTT 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P215:48Gustav Forsling Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (1), Matthew Tkachuk (2)FLA 1 – 2 OTT · FLA 14% → 31% +17FLA 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P318:50Tim Stützle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (1)FLA 1 – 3 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 55%
- ML FLA -135 / OTT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 51.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -124
- OTT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.4 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +24 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.60 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +8 Elo | FLA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%31st of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 4–0 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.