Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- Alex TuchAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists3
- Evgeni MalkinPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT1:38Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (3), Evgeni Malkin (9)5–6
- P319:14Rickard Rakell Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (1), Evgeni Malkin (8)5–5
- P310:56Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (3), Jason Zucker (3)5–4
- P310:16JJ Peterka Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (1)4–4
- P33:26Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (5)3–4
- P215:20Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (1), Drew O'Connor (1)3–3
- P29:12Drew O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (2)3–2
- P111:33JJ Peterka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (2), Alex Tuch (4)3–1
- P111:01Bryan Rust Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (7), Sidney Crosby (4)2–1
- P13:08Jordan Greenway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (2)2–0
- P10:43Tage Thompson Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Alex Tuch (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:26Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (5)BUF 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 51% → 77% +25PIT 51% → 77%+25 pts
- P310:16JJ Peterka Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (1)BUF 4 – 4 PIT · BUF 18% → 49% +31BUF 18% → 49%+31 pts
- P310:56Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (3), Jason Zucker (3)BUF 5 – 4 PIT · BUF 49% → 82% +33BUF 49% → 82%+33 pts
- P319:14Rickard Rakell Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (1), Evgeni Malkin (8)BUF 5 – 5 PIT · PIT <1% → 50% +50PIT <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:38Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (3), Evgeni Malkin (9)BUF 5 – 6 PIT · PIT 51% → 94% +43PIT 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML BUF +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −5 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +31 Elo | PIT 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.0 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 4.026th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.521st of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 46.3%25th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%22nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.