New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
PenguinsScoring summary
- P316:59Vincent Trocheck Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (1), Artemi Panarin (2)6–0
- P311:35Chris Kreider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–0
- P29:39Filip Chytil Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (1)4–0
- P119:48Chris Kreider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (2), Reilly Smith (1)3–0
- P117:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (1)2–0
- P12:24Sam Carrick Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (1), Jonny Brodzinski (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:24Sam Carrick Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (1), Jonny Brodzinski (1)NYR 1 – 0 PIT · NYR 57% → 71% +14NYR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P117:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (1)NYR 2 – 0 PIT · NYR 72% → 85% +13NYR 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P119:48Chris Kreider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (2), Reilly Smith (1)NYR 3 – 0 PIT · NYR 85% → 93% +8NYR 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P29:39Filip Chytil Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (1)NYR 4 – 0 PIT · NYR 95% → 99% +3NYR 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P311:35Chris Kreider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 5 – 0 PIT · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 57%
- ML NYR -145 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 52.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +15 Elo | NYR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 51.8%10th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 5th of 3123–16 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.