Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Michael BuntingAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:27Simon Holmstrom Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (5)4–5
- P310:56Jeff Carter Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Sidney Crosby (52), Michael Bunting (36)4–4
- P31:36Samuel Bolduc Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (14), Ruslan Iskhakov (1)3–4
- P219:44Kyle Palmieri Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (35), Mike Reilly (18)3–3
- P214:37Valtteri Puustinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P213:19Casey Cizikas Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (15), Samuel Bolduc (3)2–2
- P26:14Evgeni Malkin Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Sidney Crosby (51), Erik Karlsson (45)2–1
- P118:29Rickard Rakell Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (35), Evgeni Malkin (40)1–1
- P14:56Brock Nelson Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:37Valtteri Puustinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 3 – 2 NYI · PIT 47% → 69% +22PIT 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P219:44Kyle Palmieri Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (35), Mike Reilly (18)PIT 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 29% → 53% +24NYI 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P31:36Samuel Bolduc Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (14), Ruslan Iskhakov (1)PIT 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 53% → 77% +24NYI 53% → 77%+24 pts
- P310:56Jeff Carter Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Sidney Crosby (52), Michael Bunting (36)PIT 4 – 4 NYI · PIT 16% → 48% +32PIT 16% → 48%+32 pts
- P314:27Simon Holmstrom Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (5)PIT 4 – 5 NYI · NYI 51% → 89% +38NYI 51% → 89%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 53%
- Fair odds
- NYI -120
- PIT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +21 Elo | NYI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 47.8%23rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 26th of 3115–24 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.