Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:21Kevin Hayes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (1)6–3
- P38:13Alex DeBrincat Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (1), Lucas Raymond (2)5–3
- P31:42Erik Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (1), Evgeni Malkin (2)5–2
- P212:32Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (1), Alex DeBrincat (1)4–2
- P25:28Marcus Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P23:53Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (1), Erik Karlsson (1)3–1
- P22:55Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (1), Sidney Crosby (2)2–1
- P115:02Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (1), Jesse Puljujarvi (1)1–1
- P13:46Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (1), Dylan Larkin (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (1), Dylan Larkin (1)PIT 0 – 1 DET · DET 57% → 71% +14DET 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P115:02Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (1), Jesse Puljujarvi (1)PIT 1 – 1 DET · PIT 28% → 44% +16PIT 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P22:55Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (1), Sidney Crosby (2)PIT 2 – 1 DET · PIT 44% → 63% +18PIT 44% → 63%+18 pts
- P23:53Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (1), Erik Karlsson (1)PIT 3 – 1 DET · PIT 63% → 79% +16PIT 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P25:28Marcus Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 4 – 1 DET · PIT 80% → 90% +11PIT 80% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML PIT +125 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 57.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −26 | PIT: Joel Blomqvist (no track record yet) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.64 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +54 Elo | DET 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 47.1%24th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 26th of 3115–25 | Road vs home | 23–1612th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.