Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Daniel SprongGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Daniel SprongPoints2
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Patrick Kane Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P319:55David Perron Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (46)4–4
- P312:46Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (2), David Savard (18)3–4
- P33:31Daniel Sprong Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P210:45Joe Veleno Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (45), Daniel Sprong (25)2–3
- P210:09Cole Caufield Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (30), Nick Suzuki (44)1–3
- P26:17Brendan Gallagher Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (8), Jayden Struble (7)1–2
- P118:29Moritz Seider Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (36), Lucas Raymond (41)1–1
- P111:32Alex Newhook Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (15), Logan Mailloux (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:29Moritz Seider Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (36), Lucas Raymond (41)DET 1 – 1 MTL · DET 31% → 47% +17DET 31% → 47%+17 pts
- P26:17Brendan Gallagher Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (8), Jayden Struble (7)DET 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 53% → 71% +18MTL 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P33:31Daniel Sprong Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 3 – 3 MTL · DET 23% → 48% +25DET 23% → 48%+25 pts
- P312:46Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (2), David Savard (18)DET 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 51% → 86% +35MTL 51% → 86%+35 pts
- P319:55David Perron Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (46)DET 4 – 4 MTL · DET 0% → 50% +50DET 0% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 47%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −4 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 45.5%28th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%20th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 16th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 15–2427th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–1 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.