Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals2
- Jake EvansAssists3
- Jake EvansPoints3
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists3
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:35Lucas Raymond Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (35), Shayne Gostisbehere (44)4–5
- P318:43Lucas Raymond Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (30), Shayne Gostisbehere (43)4–4
- P310:38Alex DeBrincat Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (42), Olli Maatta (14)4–3
- P215:59J.T. Compher Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: David Perron (29), Patrick Kane (27)4–2
- P215:26Brendan Gallagher Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (21)4–1
- P25:15Rafael Harvey-Pinard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (20), Johnathan Kovacevic (7)3–1
- P18:11J.T. Compher Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (40), Ben Chiarot (15)2–1
- P16:15Justin Barron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (11), Jake Evans (19)2–0
- P14:25Brendan Gallagher Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Lane Hutson (1), David Savard (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:25Brendan Gallagher Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Lane Hutson (1), David Savard (17)MTL 1 – 0 DET · MTL 44% → 59% +15MTL 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P25:15Rafael Harvey-Pinard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (20), Johnathan Kovacevic (7)MTL 3 – 1 DET · MTL 64% → 80% +16MTL 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P310:38Alex DeBrincat Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (42), Olli Maatta (14)MTL 4 – 3 DET · DET 4% → 20% +16DET 4% → 20%+16 pts
- P318:43Lucas Raymond Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (30), Shayne Gostisbehere (43)MTL 4 – 4 DET · DET <1% → 51% +50DET <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT4:35Lucas Raymond Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (35), Shayne Gostisbehere (44)MTL 4 – 5 DET · DET 51% → >99% +49DET 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- MTL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +90 Elo | DET 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.5% | Shot share | 46.8%25th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 27th of 3114–25 | Road vs home | 22–1613th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.