Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Canadiens- Kaiden GuhleGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Evgeni Malkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (2)6–3
- P311:32Kris Letang Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (6), Matt Grzelcyk (1)5–3
- P37:47Kevin Hayes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (1), Erik Karlsson (2)4–3
- P216:23Lars Eller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
- P214:26Emil Heineman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P22:51Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Mike Matheson (3)2–2
- P118:16Kaiden Guhle Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (2), Nick Suzuki (2)2–1
- P116:49Rickard Rakell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (5), Michael Bunting (1)2–0
- P16:54Lars Eller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesse Puljujarvi (2), Marcus Pettersson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:54Lars Eller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesse Puljujarvi (2), Marcus Pettersson (2)PIT 1 – 0 MTL · PIT 57% → 71% +14PIT 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P22:51Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Mike Matheson (3)PIT 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 27% → 44% +17MTL 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P214:26Emil Heineman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 45% → 67% +22MTL 45% → 67%+22 pts
- P216:23Lars Eller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 3 – 3 MTL · PIT 32% → 54% +23PIT 32% → 54%+23 pts
- P37:47Kevin Hayes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (1), Erik Karlsson (2)PIT 4 – 3 MTL · PIT 53% → 81% +28PIT 53% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -145 / MTL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -133
- MTL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +6 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +13 Elo | MTL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 2.37th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−1.7 | Margin | +0.79th of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.6% | Shot share | 43.0%30th of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 93.1%6th of 32 |
| 9th of 251–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 25 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 3–0 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.