Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors MTL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Kirby DachAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- P17:48Cole Caufield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (1), Kirby Dach (1)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:48Cole Caufield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (1), Kirby Dach (1)TOR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 37% → 53% +15MTL 37% → 53%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TOR -195 / MTL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- MTL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +32 | −1 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.81 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +57 Elo | TOR 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 45.4%28th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%21st of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 8th of 3121–17 | Road vs home | 15–2528th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–0 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.