Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Nick JensenAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints1
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:43Cole Caufield Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (3)1–4
- P35:30Tim Stützle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Nick Jensen (1)1–3
- P33:50Alex Newhook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (4), Kaiden Guhle (3)0–3
- P115:03Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (2)0–2
- P110:37Emil Heineman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (1), Lane Hutson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:37Emil Heineman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (1), Lane Hutson (3)OTT 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 42% → 58% +16MTL 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P115:03Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (2)OTT 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 59% → 74% +15MTL 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P33:50Alex Newhook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (4), Kaiden Guhle (3)OTT 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 90% → 98% +8MTL 90% → 98%+8 pts
- P35:30Tim Stützle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Nick Jensen (1)OTT 1 – 3 MTL · OTT 2% → 8% +7OTT 2% → 8%+7 pts
- P37:43Cole Caufield Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (3)OTT 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 93% → 99% +6MTL 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML OTT -155 / MTL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 52.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- OTT -143
- MTL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +24 | +4 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.59 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +19 Elo | OTT 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 45.4%28th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%21st of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 25th of 3116–24 | Road vs home | 15–2528th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 3–0 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.