Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals2
- Kaiden GuhleAssists2
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Bruins- Mark KastelicGoals2
- Cole KoepkeAssists2
- Cole KoepkePoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:00Mark Kastelic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (2), Brandon Carlo (2)4–6
- P315:43Brendan Gallagher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (1), Joel Armia (2)4–5
- P39:05Josh Anderson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (2), Oliver Kapanen (1)3–5
- P216:51Cole Koepke Goal (1) Poke, assists: John Beecher (2), Brandon Carlo (1)2–5
- P215:56David Pastrnak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (1), Elias Lindholm (3)2–4
- P118:23Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (2), David Pastrnak (1)2–3
- P113:24Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Cole Koepke (1)2–2
- P112:18Cole Caufield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (1), Lane Hutson (2)2–1
- P111:04Charlie McAvoy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Elias Lindholm (2)1–1
- P18:26Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Joel Armia (1), Lane Hutson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:26Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Joel Armia (1), Lane Hutson (1)MTL 1 – 0 BOS · MTL 26% → 40% +14MTL 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P111:04Charlie McAvoy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Elias Lindholm (2)MTL 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 58% → 73% +15BOS 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P112:18Cole Caufield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (1), Lane Hutson (2)MTL 2 – 1 BOS · MTL 27% → 42% +15MTL 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P113:24Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Cole Koepke (1)MTL 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 58% → 73% +15BOS 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P118:23Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (2), David Pastrnak (1)MTL 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 72% → 84% +13BOS 72% → 84%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 75%
- ML MTL +290 / BOS -360
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.7%, market 75.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -305
- MTL +305 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.0 – 3.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +3 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +137 Elo | BOS 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.4% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 28th of 3114–26 | Road vs home | 23–1713th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.