Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Max DomiAssists2
- Max DomiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38William Nylander Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (3)2–4
- P312:29Rickard Rakell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (4)2–3
- P32:12Mitch Marner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P22:53Matthew Knies Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (1), Mitch Marner (1)1–2
- P20:50William Nylander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (2)1–1
- P110:58Kris Letang Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Evgeni Malkin (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:58Kris Letang Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Evgeni Malkin (3)PIT 1 – 0 TOR · PIT 38% → 54% +16PIT 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P20:50William Nylander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (2)PIT 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 43% → 61% +18TOR 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P22:53Matthew Knies Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (1), Mitch Marner (1)PIT 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 60% → 77% +16TOR 60% → 77%+16 pts
- P32:12Mitch Marner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 80% → 94% +13TOR 80% → 94%+13 pts
- P312:29Rickard Rakell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (4)PIT 2 – 3 TOR · PIT 1% → 13% +11PIT 1% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 63%
- ML PIT +160 / TOR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +31 | PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.77 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +87 Elo | TOR 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 26th of 3115–25 | Road vs home | 21–1917th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.