Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Steven LorentzAssists1
- Steven LorentzPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Johnathan KovacevicAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:54Timo Meier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (2), Brenden Dillon (1)4–2
- P214:52John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1)4–1
- P119:18Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P114:46Steven Lorentz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: David Kampf (1)3–0
- P111:29Bobby McMann Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (1), Steven Lorentz (1)2–0
- P18:18Max Pacioretty Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (1), Conor Timmins (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:18Max Pacioretty Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (1), Conor Timmins (1)TOR 1 – 0 NJ · TOR 43% → 59% +16TOR 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P111:29Bobby McMann Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (1), Steven Lorentz (1)TOR 2 – 0 NJ · TOR 60% → 74% +15TOR 60% → 74%+15 pts
- P114:46Steven Lorentz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: David Kampf (1)TOR 3 – 0 NJ · TOR 75% → 87% +11TOR 75% → 87%+11 pts
- P119:18Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 1 NJ · NJ 12% → 23% +11NJ 12% → 23%+11 pts
- P214:52John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1)TOR 4 – 1 NJ · TOR 84% → 94% +10TOR 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML TOR +125 / NJ -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 59.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -133
- TOR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +21 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby (no track record yet) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.54 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +65 Elo | NJ 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 50.6%15th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 8th of 3121–17 | Road vs home | 16–2326th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.