Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Dmitry KulikovGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Dmitry KulikovPoints1
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Egor ChinakhovAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:21James van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Damon Severson (3), Kevin Labanc (2)4–3
- P315:12Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (4), Niko Mikkola (2)4–2
- P219:58Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (1), Sam Bennett (2)3–2
- P211:59Dmitry Kulikov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (1), Anton Lundell (2)2–2
- P211:22Sean Monahan Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (4), Kirill Marchenko (3)1–2
- P210:25Anton Lundell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3), Nate Schmidt (1)1–1
- P20:41Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:41Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (2)FLA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 45% → 63% +18CBJ 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P210:25Anton Lundell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3), Nate Schmidt (1)FLA 1 – 1 CBJ · FLA 34% → 54% +20FLA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P211:22Sean Monahan Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (4), Kirill Marchenko (3)FLA 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 46% → 66% +21CBJ 46% → 66%+21 pts
- P211:59Dmitry Kulikov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (1), Anton Lundell (2)FLA 2 – 2 CBJ · FLA 33% → 54% +21FLA 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P219:58Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (1), Sam Bennett (2)FLA 3 – 2 CBJ · FLA 54% → 76% +23FLA 54% → 76%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 56%
- ML FLA -140 / CBJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −28 | −2 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.71 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +30 Elo | FLA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 46.5%26th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%20th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 17–2325th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.