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Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, NESN

Away

Panthers

2-2-0

4–3

at

Home

Bruins

2-2-0

FLA 46%BOS 54%

You didn't pick this one.

TD Garden · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored FLA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3BOS50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
    Bruins

    Scoring summary

    • P214:07Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (3), John Beecher (3)4–3
    • P212:59Anton Lundell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (1)4–2
    • P29:39Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
    • P25:08Brandon Carlo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (3), Mark Kastelic (2)2–2
    • P111:51Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (1)2–1
    • P16:37Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
    • P14:53John Beecher Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mark Kastelic (1), Mason Lohrei (2)0–1

    Turning points

    The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P111:51Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (1)FLA 2 – 1 BOS · FLA 46% → 62% +16
    2. P25:08Brandon Carlo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (3), Mark Kastelic (2)FLA 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 35% → 53% +19
    3. P29:39Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 3 – 2 BOS · FLA 47% → 67% +20
    4. P212:59Anton Lundell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (1)FLA 4 – 2 BOS · FLA 68% → 85% +16
    5. P214:07Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (3), John Beecher (3)FLA 4 – 3 BOS · BOS 15% → 31% +16

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Bruins 54%

    Toss-upMiss
    FLA 46%BOS 54%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    BOS 54%
    ML FLA +110 / BOS -130
    Pre-line forecast
    BOS 55%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    BOS 52%
    Ratings vs. market
    −1.9 pts
    BOS: Elo 52.4%, market 54.3%
    Fair odds
    BOS -119
    FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    FLA 2.6 – 2.9 BOS
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorFLABOSWhy
    Team rating15511527Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−2+3FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsBOS +16 EloBOS 52.4%
    Market-implied ratingsBOS 55.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastBOS 54.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastBOS 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
    FLAStatBOS
    13th of 323.0Goals scored4.05th of 32
    24th of 324.0Goals allowed3.722nd of 32
    21st of 32−1.0Margin+0.313th of 32
    11th of 3251.7%Shot share47.2%23rd of 32
    23rd of 3288.1%Save percentage88.2%22nd of 32
    17th of 240–2Road vs home2–01st of 25

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    PanthersBruins
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Head to head

    FLA 5–6 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.