Los Angeles Kings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Mason LohreiAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:07David Pastrnak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (1), Matthew Poitras (1)1–2
- P216:50Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (2)1–1
- P25:22Trevor Moore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (1), Quinton Byfield (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:22Trevor Moore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (1), Quinton Byfield (2)LA 1 – 0 BOS · LA 43% → 62% +19LA 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P216:50Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (2)LA 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 33% → 56% +23BOS 33% → 56%+23 pts
- OT3:07David Pastrnak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (1), Matthew Poitras (1)LA 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 52% → 98% +47BOS 52% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML LA +135 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- LA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −22 | +2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +75 Elo | BOS 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 23–1713th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.