Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Blues- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Mathieu JosephPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:51Filip Gustavsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P310:10Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (1), Philip Broberg (3)3–1
- P30:46Marco Rossi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (2), Kirill Kaprizov (5)3–0
- P27:52Jakub Lauko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (1), Jonas Brodin (2)2–0
- P13:50Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (4), Brock Faber (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:50Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (4), Brock Faber (2)MIN 1 – 0 STL · MIN 53% → 68% +14MIN 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P27:52Jakub Lauko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (1), Jonas Brodin (2)MIN 2 – 0 STL · MIN 71% → 85% +14MIN 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P30:46Marco Rossi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (2), Kirill Kaprizov (5)MIN 3 – 0 STL · MIN 91% → 98% +7MIN 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P310:10Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (1), Philip Broberg (3)MIN 3 – 1 STL · STL <1% → 3% +3STL <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P319:51Filip Gustavsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 4 – 1 STL · MIN 100% → 100% +0MIN 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 44.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −2 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +35 Elo | STL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.78th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.2% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 88.8%21st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–3 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.