St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals2
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:04Robert Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (1), Colton Parayko (2)3–4
- P312:53Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (4), Alex Pietrangelo (2)2–4
- P27:29Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (4), Justin Faulk (3)2–3
- P22:55Shea Theodore Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Schwindt (1)1–3
- P118:13Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (3), Jack Eichel (5)1–2
- P18:02Jack Eichel Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (3), Mark Stone (2)1–1
- P16:47Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jordan Kyrou (3), Philip Broberg (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:47Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jordan Kyrou (3), Philip Broberg (2)STL 1 – 0 VGK · STL 34% → 49% +15STL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P18:02Jack Eichel Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (3), Mark Stone (2)STL 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 51% → 66% +15VGK 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P118:13Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (3), Jack Eichel (5)STL 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 65% → 79% +15VGK 65% → 79%+15 pts
- P22:55Shea Theodore Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Schwindt (1)STL 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 79% → 90% +11VGK 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P27:29Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (4), Justin Faulk (3)STL 2 – 3 VGK · STL 9% → 20% +11STL 9% → 20%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML STL +195 / VGK -230
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 60.8%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -206
- STL +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +76 Elo | VGK 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 50.4%16th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 27–134th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–2 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.