St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Radek FaksaGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:45Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Robert Thomas (3)5–4
- P319:13Justin Faulk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Jordan Kyrou (2)4–4
- P36:11Ryan Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1)3–4
- P32:54Radek Faksa Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (1)2–4
- P217:37Barclay Goodrow Goal (1) Deflected, assists: none1–4
- P28:26Fabian Zetterlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (1), Tyler Toffoli (1)1–3
- P117:14Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (1), Jan Rutta (1)1–2
- P18:51Pavel Buchnevich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (1), Philip Broberg (1)1–1
- P17:01Macklin Celebrini Goal (1) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (1), Jake Walman (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:14Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (1), Jan Rutta (1)STL 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 40% → 57% +17SJ 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P28:26Fabian Zetterlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (1), Tyler Toffoli (1)STL 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 62% → 79% +17SJ 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P36:11Ryan Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1)STL 3 – 4 SJ · STL 8% → 27% +18STL 8% → 27%+18 pts
- P319:13Justin Faulk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Jordan Kyrou (2)STL 4 – 4 SJ · STL <1% → 51% +51STL <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:45Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Robert Thomas (3)STL 5 – 4 SJ · STL 53% → 93% +40STL 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML STL -175 / SJ +150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- STL: Elo 58.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -159
- SJ +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 2.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +61 Elo | STL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 41.6%31st of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 11–2830th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–3 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.