San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Collin GrafAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Fabian Zetterlund Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (48), Collin Graf (2)1–5
- P26:56MacKenzie Weegar Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniil Miromanov (4), Blake Coleman (24)0–5
- P25:59Kevin Rooney Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (16), Matt Coronato (6)0–4
- P23:53Oliver Kylington Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (24), Andrew Mangiapane (26)0–3
- P114:40Blake Coleman Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Connor Zary (20), Rasmus Andersson (30)0–2
- P112:13Adam Klapka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:13Adam Klapka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 57% → 72% +15CGY 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P114:40Blake Coleman Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Connor Zary (20), Rasmus Andersson (30)SJ 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 72% → 84% +12CGY 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P23:53Oliver Kylington Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (24), Andrew Mangiapane (26)SJ 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 86% → 94% +8CGY 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P25:59Kevin Rooney Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (16), Matt Coronato (6)SJ 0 – 4 CGY · CGY 94% → 98% +4CGY 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P26:56MacKenzie Weegar Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniil Miromanov (4), Blake Coleman (24)SJ 0 – 5 CGY · CGY 98% → >99% +1CGY 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 67%
- Fair odds
- CGY -135
- SJ +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −9 | SJ: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +121 Elo | CGY 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.7% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 30th of 318–31 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.