Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Jake MiddletonPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:51Kyle Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (2), Josh Morrissey (4)1–2
- P119:58Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (2)1–1
- P14:06Jake Middleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (3)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:06Jake Middleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (3)MIN 1 – 0 WPG · MIN 40% → 55% +15MIN 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P119:58Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (2)MIN 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 40% → 58% +18WPG 40% → 58%+18 pts
- OT0:51Kyle Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (2), Josh Morrissey (4)MIN 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 53% → 93% +40WPG 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 60%
- ML MIN +140 / WPG -165
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- WPG: Elo 62.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -149
- MIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +92 Elo | WPG 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 25–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–4 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.