Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists2
- Mason AppletonPoints3
OilersScoring summary
- P314:15Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (1), Gabriel Vilardi (1)6–0
- P29:33Kyle Connor Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (2), Mark Scheifele (1)5–0
- P24:37Dylan Samberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2), Adam Lowry (1)4–0
- P24:17Rasmus Kupari Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (1), Morgan Barron (1)3–0
- P118:35Mason Appleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (2), Neal Pionk (1)2–0
- P114:56Adam Lowry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (1), Mason Appleton (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:56Adam Lowry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (1), Mason Appleton (1)WPG 1 – 0 EDM · WPG 39% → 56% +17WPG 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P118:35Mason Appleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (2), Neal Pionk (1)WPG 2 – 0 EDM · WPG 57% → 73% +16WPG 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P24:17Rasmus Kupari Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (1), Morgan Barron (1)WPG 3 – 0 EDM · WPG 76% → 88% +12WPG 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P24:37Dylan Samberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2), Adam Lowry (1)WPG 4 – 0 EDM · WPG 88% → 95% +7WPG 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P29:33Kyle Connor Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (2), Mark Scheifele (1)WPG 5 – 0 EDM · WPG 97% → >99% +2WPG 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML WPG +155 / EDM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -166
- WPG +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +78 Elo | EDM 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 5th of 3123–16 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–2 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.