Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Pat MaroonAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:38Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Josh Morrissey (3)1–2
- P318:56Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2)1–1
- P216:52Ryan Donato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:52Ryan Donato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (1)CHI 1 – 0 WPG · CHI 37% → 60% +23CHI 37% → 60%+23 pts
- P318:56Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2)CHI 1 – 1 WPG · WPG <1% → 53% +52WPG <1% → 53%+52 pts
- OT0:38Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Josh Morrissey (3)CHI 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 56% → 93% +38WPG 56% → 93%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 70%
- ML CHI +220 / WPG -270
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 71.7%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -234
- CHI +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.7 – 3.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −9 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +161 Elo | WPG 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.4% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 31st of 316–33 | Road vs home | 25–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.