Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Lawson Crouse Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (1)2–5
- P319:18Dylan Guenther Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Logan Cooley (2), Sean Durzi (1)2–4
- P34:48Nick Foligno Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (1), Connor Bedard (2)2–3
- P214:27Teuvo Teravainen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (1), Seth Jones (1)1–3
- P28:46Barrett Hayton Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (1), Nick Schmaltz (2)0–3
- P113:35Clayton Keller Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (1), Barrett Hayton (1)0–2
- P14:56Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (1), Logan Cooley (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:56Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (1), Logan Cooley (1)CHI 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 62% → 76% +13UTAH 62% → 76%+13 pts
- P113:35Clayton Keller Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (1), Barrett Hayton (1)CHI 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 76% → 87% +11UTAH 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P28:46Barrett Hayton Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (1), Nick Schmaltz (2)CHI 0 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 89% → 96% +7UTAH 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P214:27Teuvo Teravainen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (1), Seth Jones (1)CHI 1 – 3 UTAH · CHI 3% → 9% +6CHI 3% → 9%+6 pts
- P34:48Nick Foligno Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (1), Connor Bedard (2)CHI 2 – 3 UTAH · CHI 5% → 19% +13CHI 5% → 19%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 63%
- ML CHI +160 / UTAH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- UTAH: Elo 64.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -170
- CHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | — | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +107 Elo | UTAH 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Blackhawks: last 5