Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Colin MillerGoals1
- Cole PerfettiAssists3
- Cole PerfettiPoints3
Blues- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:15Brandon Saad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (5), Robert Thomas (5)3–2
- P217:40Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (1), Cole Perfetti (5)3–1
- P213:58Colin Miller Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4), Nikolaj Ehlers (6)2–1
- P28:12Nino Niederreiter Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (6), Cole Perfetti (3)1–1
- P110:11Brandon Saad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (4), Colton Parayko (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:11Brandon Saad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (4), Colton Parayko (4)WPG 0 – 1 STL · STL 44% → 60% +16STL 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P28:12Nino Niederreiter Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (6), Cole Perfetti (3)WPG 1 – 1 STL · WPG 35% → 55% +20WPG 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P213:58Colin Miller Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4), Nikolaj Ehlers (6)WPG 2 – 1 STL · WPG 54% → 74% +20WPG 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P217:40Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (1), Cole Perfetti (5)WPG 3 – 1 STL · WPG 76% → 90% +15WPG 76% → 90%+15 pts
- P35:15Brandon Saad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (5), Robert Thomas (5)WPG 3 – 2 STL · STL 6% → 21% +15STL 6% → 21%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 56%
- ML WPG -140 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 51.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +10 Elo | WPG 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.8 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321.6 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+3.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 46.5%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 3294.6% | Save percentage | 91.5%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–0 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.