Carolina Hurricanes at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists1
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints2
Blues- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Mathieu JosephAssists1
- Mathieu JosephPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:26Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (1), Colton Parayko (3)3–4
- P32:57Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (1), Jaccob Slavin (2)3–3
- P31:39Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Andrei Svechnikov (3)2–3
- P213:31Dylan Holloway Goal (1) Poke, assists: Philip Broberg (5), Mathieu Joseph (1)1–3
- P211:35Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (2)1–2
- P210:22Mathieu Joseph Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (1), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (1)1–1
- P11:21Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (2), Seth Jarvis (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:22Mathieu Joseph Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (1), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (1)CAR 1 – 1 STL · STL 24% → 42% +19STL 24% → 42%+19 pts
- P211:35Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (2)CAR 1 – 2 STL · STL 43% → 63% +21STL 43% → 63%+21 pts
- P31:39Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Andrei Svechnikov (3)CAR 2 – 3 STL · CAR 12% → 30% +18CAR 12% → 30%+18 pts
- P32:57Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (1), Jaccob Slavin (2)CAR 3 – 3 STL · CAR 29% → 56% +26CAR 29% → 56%+26 pts
- P34:26Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (1), Colton Parayko (3)CAR 3 – 4 STL · STL 45% → 72% +27STL 45% → 72%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML CAR -170 / STL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 47.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- STL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +21 Elo | STL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.812th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.5% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.