New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Johnathan KovacevicAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:24Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (1), Jordan Martinook (1)2–4
- P315:16Nico Hischier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (4), Jesper Bratt (5)2–3
- P310:16Jackson Blake Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (1)1–3
- P219:23Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1)1–2
- P210:55Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1)1–1
- P21:16Jack Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (4), Johnathan Kovacevic (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:16Jack Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (4), Johnathan Kovacevic (3)NJ 1 – 0 CAR · NJ 42% → 60% +18NJ 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P210:55Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1)NJ 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 36% → 57% +21CAR 36% → 57%+21 pts
- P219:23Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1)NJ 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 56% → 78% +22CAR 56% → 78%+22 pts
- P310:16Jackson Blake Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (1)NJ 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 84% → 97% +13CAR 84% → 97%+13 pts
- P315:16Nico Hischier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (4), Jesper Bratt (5)NJ 2 – 3 CAR · NJ <1% → 9% +8NJ <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML NJ +140 / CAR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -149
- NJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +17 | −4 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +59 Elo | CAR 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 56.5%1st of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 10th of 3121–19 | Road vs home | 26–146th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–3 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.