Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals3
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- William CarrierAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:44Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (2), Victor Hedman (3)4–1
- P317:53Nikita Kucherov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Erik Cernak (1)3–1
- P311:06Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (2), Nicholas Paul (1)2–1
- P22:33Brayden Point Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), Victor Hedman (1)1–1
- P114:32Jordan Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:32Jordan Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (1)TB 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 72% +15CAR 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P22:33Brayden Point Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), Victor Hedman (1)TB 1 – 1 CAR · TB 27% → 44% +17TB 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P311:06Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (2), Nicholas Paul (1)TB 2 – 1 CAR · TB 47% → 81% +34TB 47% → 81%+34 pts
- P317:53Nikita Kucherov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Erik Cernak (1)TB 3 – 1 CAR · TB 97% → >99% +3TB 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P319:44Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (2), Victor Hedman (3)TB 4 – 1 CAR · TB 100% → 100% +0TB 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 58%
- ML TB +130 / CAR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -138
- TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +67 Elo | CAR 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.3% | Shot share | 56.5%1st of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 13th of 3120–20 | Road vs home | 26–146th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–1 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.