New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Barclay GoodrowPoints1
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:49Brady Skjei Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4), Andrei Svechnikov (7)3–4
- P32:04Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (10), Jacob Trouba (3)3–3
- P212:43Barclay Goodrow Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (1), Jimmy Vesey (2)2–3
- P115:29Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (5), Brent Burns (3)1–3
- P18:06Will Cuylle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (1), Erik Gustafsson (3)1–2
- P16:33Stefan Noesen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (3), Tony DeAngelo (2)0–2
- P11:51Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 69% +14CAR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P115:29Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (5), Brent Burns (3)NYR 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 70% → 83% +13CAR 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P212:43Barclay Goodrow Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (1), Jimmy Vesey (2)NYR 2 – 3 CAR · NYR 12% → 27% +14NYR 12% → 27%+14 pts
- P32:04Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (10), Jacob Trouba (3)NYR 3 – 3 CAR · NYR 23% → 47% +24NYR 23% → 47%+24 pts
- P316:49Brady Skjei Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4), Andrei Svechnikov (7)NYR 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 51% → 95% +44CAR 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Fair odds
- CAR -121
- NYR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +23 Elo | CAR 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 56.5%1st of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 5th of 3123–16 | Road vs home | 26–146th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 5–1 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.