New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Capitals- Martin FehervaryGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Martin FehervaryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:09Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (4), Jacob Trouba (2)4–2
- P33:21Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (6), Adam Fox (2)3–2
- P27:48Hendrix Lapierre Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Alexeyev (1)2–2
- P119:44Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (5), Artemi Panarin (1)2–1
- P114:54Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (2), Dylan Strome (1)1–1
- P10:57Kaapo Kakko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Kaapo Kakko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 0 WSH · NYR 47% → 62% +14NYR 47% → 62%+14 pts
- P114:54Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (2), Dylan Strome (1)NYR 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 36% → 52% +16WSH 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P119:44Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (5), Artemi Panarin (1)NYR 2 – 1 WSH · NYR 48% → 65% +17NYR 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P27:48Hendrix Lapierre Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Alexeyev (1)NYR 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 33% → 52% +19WSH 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P33:21Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (6), Adam Fox (2)NYR 3 – 2 WSH · NYR 49% → 74% +26NYR 49% → 74%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 44%
- Fair odds
- WSH -112
- NYR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +45 Elo | NYR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 3123–16 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 5–2 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.