Washington Capitals at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:45Tom Wilson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (1), John Carlson (1)3–4
- P216:52K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (2), Chris Kreider (1)2–4
- P212:26Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (2), Alexis Lafrenière (3)2–3
- P24:14Dylan Strome Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tom Wilson (2), Max Pacioretty (1)2–2
- P114:28Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Alexis Lafrenière (2)1–2
- P17:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (1)1–1
- P15:09Connor McMichael Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:09Connor McMichael Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 0 NYR · WSH 43% → 59% +15WSH 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P17:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (1)WSH 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 41% → 56% +16NYR 41% → 56%+16 pts
- P114:28Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Alexis Lafrenière (2)WSH 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 56% → 72% +16NYR 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P24:14Dylan Strome Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tom Wilson (2), Max Pacioretty (1)WSH 2 – 2 NYR · WSH 27% → 45% +17WSH 27% → 45%+17 pts
- P212:26Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (2), Alexis Lafrenière (3)WSH 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 55% → 74% +20NYR 55% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 64%
- Fair odds
- NYR -132
- WSH +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +102 Elo | NYR 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.5% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 16th of 3118–22 | Road vs home | 29–112nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.