Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- T.J. OshieGoals1
- T.J. OshieAssists1
- T.J. OshiePoints2
Flyers- Erik JohnsonGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Erik JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:00T.J. Oshie Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (10)2–1
- P212:29Erik Johnson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Egor Zamula (16), Sean Couturier (27)1–1
- P118:08Alex Ovechkin Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Dylan McIlrath (1), T.J. Oshie (13)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:08Alex Ovechkin Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Dylan McIlrath (1), T.J. Oshie (13)WSH 1 – 0 PHI · WSH 43% → 60% +17WSH 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P212:29Erik Johnson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Egor Zamula (16), Sean Couturier (27)WSH 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 35% → 56% +21PHI 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P317:00T.J. Oshie Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (10)WSH 2 – 1 PHI · WSH 48% → 94% +46WSH 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -141
- WSH +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −6 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.426th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.5% | Shot share | 54.9%2nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.