New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Vincent TrocheckPoints2
Capitals- John CarlsonGoals1
- Martin FehervaryAssists1
- John CarlsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:22Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (4), Adam Fox (1)3–1
- P18:08Barclay Goodrow Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (3), Jacob Trouba (1)2–1
- P16:08Chris Kreider Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Jack Roslovic (2)1–1
- P15:34John Carlson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (1), Martin Fehervary (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:34John Carlson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (1), Martin Fehervary (1)NYR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 68% +15WSH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P16:08Chris Kreider Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Jack Roslovic (2)NYR 1 – 1 WSH · NYR 32% → 47% +15NYR 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P18:08Barclay Goodrow Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (3), Jacob Trouba (1)NYR 2 – 1 WSH · NYR 47% → 63% +15NYR 47% → 63%+15 pts
- P215:22Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (4), Adam Fox (1)NYR 3 – 1 WSH · NYR 70% → 86% +16NYR 70% → 86%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 45%
- Fair odds
- WSH -113
- NYR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +36 Elo | NYR 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 3123–16 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 4–2 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.