Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints1
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals2
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Scoring summary
- 2OT1:24Mathew Barzal Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Robert Bortuzzo (1), Bo Horvat (2)2–3
- P314:08Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), Martin Necas (3)2–2
- P31:38Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (1), Anders Lee (3)1–2
- P210:10Mathew Barzal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (2), Bo Horvat (1)1–1
- P18:00Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:00Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (3)CAR 1 – 0 NYI · CAR 48% → 63% +15CAR 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P210:10Mathew Barzal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (2), Bo Horvat (1)CAR 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 32% → 52% +20NYI 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P31:38Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (1), Anders Lee (3)CAR 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 51% → 76% +24NYI 51% → 76%+24 pts
- P314:08Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), Martin Necas (3)CAR 2 – 2 NYI · CAR 12% → 49% +37CAR 12% → 49%+37 pts
- 2OT1:24Mathew Barzal Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Robert Bortuzzo (1), Bo Horvat (2)CAR 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 51% → 93% +43NYI 51% → 93%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 42%
- Fair odds
- NYI -110
- CAR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +8 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +56 Elo | CAR 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.5% | Shot share | 47.7%23rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 4th of 3124–16 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 5–2 NYI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.