New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle MacLeanGoals1
- Alexander RomanovAssists1
- Kyle MacLeanPoints1
Hurricanes- Evgeny KuznetsovGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists2
- Evgeny KuznetsovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:28Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (1), Jack Drury (1)1–3
- P33:44Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (2), Evgeny Kuznetsov (1)1–2
- P18:20Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (1), Alexander Romanov (1)1–1
- P11:35Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Brady Skjei (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:35Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Brady Skjei (1)NYI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 71% +14CAR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P18:20Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (1), Alexander Romanov (1)NYI 1 – 1 CAR · NYI 29% → 43% +15NYI 29% → 43%+15 pts
- P33:44Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (2), Evgeny Kuznetsov (1)NYI 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 54% → 79% +25CAR 54% → 79%+25 pts
- P318:28Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (1), Jack Drury (1)NYI 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 99% → >99% +1CAR 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 65%
- Fair odds
- CAR -133
- NYI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +15 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +111 Elo | CAR 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.7% | Shot share | 56.5%1st of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3117–23 | Road vs home | 26–146th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.