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New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

FinalCAR wins series 4-1

Away

Islanders

39-27-16

3–6

at

Home

Hurricanes

52-23-7

NYI 43%CAR 57%

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Lenovo Center · TBS

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.

CAR favored NYI favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3CAR50%NYI

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Islanders
Hurricanes

Scoring summary

  • P318:21Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
  • P34:44Stefan Noesen Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (5), Evgeny Kuznetsov (2)3–5
  • P34:36Jack Drury Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (4), Martin Necas (4)3–4
  • P219:38Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (3), Ryan Pulock (3)3–3
  • P23:47Brock Nelson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (2), Ryan Pulock (2)2–3
  • P113:22Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
  • P13:54Mike Reilly Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (2), Brock Nelson (2)1–2
  • P13:13Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Brent Burns (1)0–2
  • P11:23Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (3), Jaccob Slavin (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P11:23Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (3), Jaccob Slavin (1)NYI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 71% +14
  2. P23:47Brock Nelson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (2), Ryan Pulock (2)NYI 2 – 3 CAR · NYI 14% → 27% +13
  3. P219:38Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (3), Ryan Pulock (3)NYI 3 – 3 CAR · NYI 23% → 46% +23
  4. P34:36Jack Drury Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (4), Martin Necas (4)NYI 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 54% → 79% +25
  5. P34:44Stefan Noesen Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (5), Evgeny Kuznetsov (2)NYI 3 – 5 CAR · CAR 79% → 94% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Hurricanes 57%

LeanHit
NYI 43%CAR 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CAR 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 66%
Fair odds
CAR -134
NYI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYI 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYICARWhy
Team rating14851566Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+8+9NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +117 EloCAR 66.2%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 57.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
NYIStatCAR
22nd of 313.0Goals scored3.49th of 31
21st of 313.3Goals allowed2.74th of 31
21st of 31−0.3Margin+0.74th of 31
23rd of 3147.7%Shot share56.5%1st of 31
8th of 3191.0%Save percentage90.4%14th of 31
1st of 318–2Last 107–34th of 31
23rd of 3117–23Road vs home26–146th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

IslandersHurricanes
140014501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

NYI 3–5 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.