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New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

FinalNYR win series 4-2

Away

Rangers

55-23-4

5–3

at

Home

Hurricanes

52-23-7

NYR 45%CAR 55%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.

CAR favored NYR favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3CAR50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
Hurricanes

Scoring summary

  • P319:11Barclay Goodrow Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (2)5–3
  • P315:41Chris Kreider Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (1), Jack Roslovic (5)4–3
  • P311:54Chris Kreider Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (7), Vincent Trocheck (8)3–3
  • P36:43Chris Kreider Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Jack Roslovic (4)2–3
  • P29:23Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9), Jaccob Slavin (2)1–3
  • P25:29Vincent Trocheck Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (6)1–2
  • P24:38Seth Jarvis Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (8), Andrei Svechnikov (8)0–2
  • P118:38Martin Necas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), Dmitry Orlov (4)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P118:38Martin Necas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), Dmitry Orlov (4)NYR 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 54% → 71% +16
  2. P29:23Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9), Jaccob Slavin (2)NYR 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 73% → 87% +14
  3. P36:43Chris Kreider Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Jack Roslovic (4)NYR 2 – 3 CAR · NYR 5% → 20% +15
  4. P311:54Chris Kreider Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (7), Vincent Trocheck (8)NYR 3 – 3 CAR · NYR 15% → 48% +33
  5. P315:41Chris Kreider Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (1), Jack Roslovic (5)NYR 4 – 3 CAR · NYR 49% → 91% +42

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Hurricanes 55%

LeanMiss
NYR 45%CAR 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CAR 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 56%
Fair odds
CAR -123
NYR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 2.9 – 3.2 CAR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRCARWhy
Team rating15641570Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+1NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +42 EloCAR 56.1%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 55.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatCAR
8th of 313.4Goals scored3.49th of 31
7th of 312.8Goals allowed2.74th of 31
8th of 31+0.6Margin+0.74th of 31
14th of 3150.7%Shot share56.5%1st of 31
5th of 3191.3%Save percentage90.4%14th of 31
4th of 317–3Last 107–34th of 31
5th of 3123–16Road vs home26–146th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersHurricanes
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

NYR 5–3 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.