New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Paul CotterGoals2
- Stefan NoesenAssists3
- Stefan NoesenPoints3
Capitals- John CarlsonGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists1
- John CarlsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (1), Nico Hischier (1)5–3
- P31:35Tom Wilson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (1)4–3
- P213:38Paul Cotter Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (4), Erik Haula (4)4–2
- P23:56Tomas Tatar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (3), Erik Haula (3)3–2
- P20:32Dylan Strome Goal (1) Poke, assists: John Carlson (1), Alex Ovechkin (1)2–2
- P116:24Paul Cotter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (2), Erik Haula (2)2–1
- P113:42Seamus Casey Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (2), Timo Meier (1)1–1
- P110:48John Carlson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Dylan Strome (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:48John Carlson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Dylan Strome (1)NJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 45% → 61% +16WSH 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P113:42Seamus Casey Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (2), Timo Meier (1)NJ 1 – 1 WSH · NJ 38% → 55% +16NJ 38% → 55%+16 pts
- P116:24Paul Cotter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (2), Erik Haula (2)NJ 2 – 1 WSH · NJ 54% → 71% +16NJ 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P20:32Dylan Strome Goal (1) Poke, assists: John Carlson (1), Alex Ovechkin (1)NJ 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 29% → 46% +17WSH 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P23:56Tomas Tatar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (3), Erik Haula (3)NJ 3 – 2 WSH · NJ 54% → 72% +18NJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NJ -135 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 48.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 2.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | +1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +12 Elo | WSH 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 10th of 3121–19 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.