Utah Hockey Club at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC
Devils- Seamus CaseyGoals1
- Seamus CaseyAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:13Nico Hischier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (3), Jesper Bratt (3)0–3
- P28:13Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Seamus Casey (1)0–2
- P21:14Seamus Casey Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:14Seamus Casey Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2)UTAH 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 56% → 73% +17NJ 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P28:13Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Seamus Casey (1)UTAH 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 74% → 87% +14NJ 74% → 87%+14 pts
- P310:13Nico Hischier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (3), Jesper Bratt (3)UTAH 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 97% → >99% +3NJ 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML UTAH +125 / NJ -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -133
- UTAH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −5 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka (no track record yet) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +15 Elo | NJ 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 325.3 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.37th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.7 | Margin | +1.38th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3247.6% | Shot share | 52.8%8th of 32 |
| 27th of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 242–0 | Road vs home | 0–114th of 25 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.