Utah Hockey Club at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Logan CooleyAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Islanders- Anthony DuclairGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Anthony DuclairPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:18Dylan Guenther Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (2), Logan Cooley (4)5–4
- P318:06Josh Doan Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (1), Lawson Crouse (1)4–4
- P317:53Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (1), Kyle Palmieri (1)3–4
- P37:37Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (2), Mikhail Sergachev (3)3–3
- P36:52Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (1)2–3
- P31:03Bo Horvat Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (1), Noah Dobson (2)2–2
- P213:07Barrett Hayton Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (2), Clayton Keller (1)2–1
- P119:01Lawson Crouse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (1), Logan Cooley (3)1–1
- P111:10Anthony Duclair Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Noah Dobson (1), Mathew Barzal (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P36:52Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (1)UTAH 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 80% +28NYI 52% → 80%+28 pts
- P37:37Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (2), Mikhail Sergachev (3)UTAH 3 – 3 NYI · UTAH 19% → 48% +28UTAH 19% → 48%+28 pts
- P317:53Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (1), Kyle Palmieri (1)UTAH 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 51% → 98% +47NYI 51% → 98%+47 pts
- P318:06Josh Doan Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (1), Lawson Crouse (1)UTAH 4 – 4 NYI · UTAH 2% → 49% +47UTAH 2% → 49%+47 pts
- OT2:18Dylan Guenther Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (2), Logan Cooley (4)UTAH 5 – 4 NYI · UTAH 49% → 95% +47UTAH 49% → 95%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 55%
- ML UTAH +115 / NYI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 52.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -124
- UTAH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +16 Elo | NYI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.