Utah Hockey Club at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals2
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints3
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Will CuylleAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:05Clayton Keller Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none6–5
- P312:56Will Cuylle Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (3), Kaapo Kakko (1)5–5
- P217:59Braden Schneider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (3), Will Cuylle (2)5–4
- P213:59Dylan Guenther Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (4), Barrett Hayton (2)5–3
- P29:18K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (2)4–3
- P28:38Kevin Stenlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (2)4–2
- P26:02Clayton Keller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (2)3–2
- P23:51Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (1), Vincent Trocheck (1)2–2
- P21:48Jack McBain Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vladislav Kolyachonok (1), Logan Cooley (5)2–1
- P18:38Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (2)1–1
- P13:43Barrett Hayton Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (3), Nick Schmaltz (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:02Clayton Keller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (2)UTAH 3 – 2 NYR · UTAH 39% → 58% +19UTAH 39% → 58%+19 pts
- P213:59Dylan Guenther Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (4), Barrett Hayton (2)UTAH 5 – 3 NYR · UTAH 62% → 80% +19UTAH 62% → 80%+19 pts
- P217:59Braden Schneider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (3), Will Cuylle (2)UTAH 5 – 4 NYR · NYR 17% → 36% +19NYR 17% → 36%+19 pts
- P312:56Will Cuylle Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (3), Kaapo Kakko (1)UTAH 5 – 5 NYR · NYR 18% → 55% +38NYR 18% → 55%+38 pts
- OT4:05Clayton Keller Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneUTAH 6 – 5 NYR · UTAH 48% → >99% +52UTAH 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 65%
- ML UTAH +175 / NYR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 61.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -186
- UTAH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +84 Elo | NYR 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Goals scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 303.0 | Goals allowed | 0.01st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +6.01st of 30 |
| 15th of 3050.0% | Shot share | 56.3%5th of 30 |
| 17th of 3088.7% | Save percentage | 100.0%1st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.