Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Jesperi KotkaniemiAssists2
- Jesperi KotkaniemiPoints2
PenguinsScoring summary
- P311:00Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3), Dmitry Orlov (2)4–1
- P217:13Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (2), Martin Necas (2)3–1
- P26:52Martin Necas Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (1), Sebastian Aho (1)2–1
- P113:24Jackson Blake Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (1), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2)1–1
- P112:20Drew O'Connor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (2), Jesse Puljujarvi (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:20Drew O'Connor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (2), Jesse Puljujarvi (3)CAR 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 40% → 57% +16PIT 40% → 57%+16 pts
- P113:24Jackson Blake Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (1), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2)CAR 1 – 1 PIT · CAR 43% → 59% +16CAR 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P26:52Martin Necas Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (1), Sebastian Aho (1)CAR 2 – 1 PIT · CAR 58% → 76% +18CAR 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P217:13Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (2), Martin Necas (2)CAR 3 – 1 PIT · CAR 78% → 91% +14CAR 78% → 91%+14 pts
- P311:00Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3), Dmitry Orlov (2)CAR 4 – 1 PIT · CAR 98% → >99% +2CAR 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML CAR -170 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- PIT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +8 Elo | CAR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.5% | Shot share | 51.8%10th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 4th of 3124–16 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.