New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:04Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Philip Broberg (4), Joel Hofer (1)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT2:04Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Philip Broberg (4), Joel Hofer (1)NYI 0 – 1 STL · STL 48% → 95% +46STL 48% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML NYI -145 / STL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 42.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 2.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +50 Elo | STL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.518th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.520th of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.