New York Islanders at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals2
- Mason MarchmentAssists2
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Sam Steel (1)0–3
- P210:58Jamie Benn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (2)0–2
- P17:59Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (1), Matt Duchene (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:59Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (1), Matt Duchene (2)NYI 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 61% → 75% +14DAL 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P210:58Jamie Benn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (2)NYI 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 77% → 89% +13DAL 77% → 89%+13 pts
- P318:57Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Sam Steel (1)NYI 0 – 3 DAL · DAL >99% → 100% +0DAL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML NYI +150 / DAL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -159
- NYI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +98 Elo | DAL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.7% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3117–23 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.