Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals2
- Tyler SeguinAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:25Ryan O'Reilly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (2)4–3
- P34:37Tommy Novak Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Luke Evangelista (1), Filip Forsberg (1)4–2
- P218:15Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Thomas Harley (1)4–1
- P28:03Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Logan Stankoven (3)3–1
- P23:30Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (1), Roman Josi (1)2–1
- P22:24Jason Robertson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Logan Stankoven (2)2–0
- P22:05Roope Hintz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Wyatt Johnston (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:05Roope Hintz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Wyatt Johnston (1)DAL 1 – 0 NSH · DAL 53% → 71% +17DAL 53% → 71%+17 pts
- P22:24Jason Robertson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Logan Stankoven (2)DAL 2 – 0 NSH · DAL 71% → 84% +14DAL 71% → 84%+14 pts
- P23:30Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (1), Roman Josi (1)DAL 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 15% → 29% +14NSH 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P28:03Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Logan Stankoven (3)DAL 3 – 1 NSH · DAL 72% → 86% +14DAL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P218:15Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Thomas Harley (1)DAL 4 – 1 NSH · DAL 90% → 97% +7DAL 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / NSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 48.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NSH: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +10 Elo | NSH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 51.1%13th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 22–1714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–2 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.