New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Adam PelechAssists2
- Adam PelechPoints2
Avalanche- Calum RitchieGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Calum RitchiePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:48Mathew Barzal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (1), Adam Pelech (2)6–2
- P36:48Anthony Duclair Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (1), Bo Horvat (1)5–2
- P30:39Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4), Cale Makar (5)4–2
- P211:14Brock Nelson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P28:25Brock Nelson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (1), Adam Pelech (1)3–1
- P118:13Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P15:33Anders Lee Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (2), Scott Mayfield (1)1–1
- P11:01Calum Ritchie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:01Calum Ritchie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (2)NYI 0 – 1 COL · COL 59% → 72% +13COL 59% → 72%+13 pts
- P15:33Anders Lee Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (2), Scott Mayfield (1)NYI 1 – 1 COL · NYI 28% → 42% +14NYI 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P118:13Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 2 – 1 COL · NYI 43% → 60% +17NYI 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P28:25Brock Nelson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (1), Adam Pelech (1)NYI 3 – 1 COL · NYI 63% → 80% +17NYI 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P211:14Brock Nelson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 4 – 1 COL · NYI 82% → 92% +11NYI 82% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML NYI +135 / COL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- COL: Elo 61.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -143
- NYI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −9 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +82 Elo | COL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.7% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3117–23 | Road vs home | 29–101st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.