San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals2
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists3
- Cole PerfettiPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:27Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (4), Cole Perfetti (2)3–8
- P312:55Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (3)3–7
- P310:09Fabian Zetterlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (2), Mikael Granlund (5)3–6
- P39:50Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (2), Vladislav Namestnikov (2)2–6
- P210:28Luke Kunin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (1), Cody Ceci (1)2–5
- P21:46Kyle Connor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (2), Gabriel Vilardi (3)1–5
- P118:48Neal Pionk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (1), Vladislav Namestnikov (1)1–4
- P113:31Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (1)1–3
- P111:43Tyler Toffoli Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (2), Mikael Granlund (4)1–2
- P19:25Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (2), Mark Scheifele (3)0–2
- P11:59Josh Morrissey Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (1), Nikolaj Ehlers (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:59Josh Morrissey Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (1), Nikolaj Ehlers (3)SJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 77% → 86% +10WPG 77% → 86%+10 pts
- P19:25Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (2), Mark Scheifele (3)SJ 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 86% → 93% +7WPG 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P111:43Tyler Toffoli Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (2), Mikael Granlund (4)SJ 1 – 2 WPG · SJ 7% → 14% +7SJ 7% → 14%+7 pts
- P113:31Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (1)SJ 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 86% → 93% +7WPG 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P118:48Neal Pionk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (1), Vladislav Namestnikov (1)SJ 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 93% → 97% +4WPG 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 77%
- ML SJ +320 / WPG -400
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 76.1%, market 77.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -336
- SJ +336 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 1.9 – 3.6 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −4 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +202 Elo | WPG 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 73.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 77.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 0.71st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.5 | Margin | +2.72nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.4% | Shot share | 52.0%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 97.6%1st of 32 |
| 24th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.