Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Isac LundestromGoals1
- Brock McGinnAssists1
- Isac LundestromPoints1
SharksScoring summary
- P318:25Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (1)2–0
- P311:00Isac Lundestrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock McGinn (1), Brett Leason (1)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P311:00Isac Lundestrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock McGinn (1), Brett Leason (1)ANA 1 – 0 SJ · ANA 52% → 84% +32ANA 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P318:25Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (1)ANA 2 – 0 SJ · ANA 99% → >99% +1ANA 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 55%
- ML ANA -135 / SJ +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 48.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -124
- SJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +10 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +10 Elo | SJ 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.1 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.1% | Shot share | 41.6%31st of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 26th of 3115–25 | Road vs home | 11–2830th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.