San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- William EklundPoints2
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:52Fabian Zetterlund Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Mikael Granlund (3), William Eklund (3)2–4
- P32:19Jason Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (1)1–4
- P218:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (2), Mikael Granlund (2)1–3
- P20:43Nick Foligno Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4), Connor Bedard (6)0–3
- P119:11Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (3), Connor Bedard (5)0–2
- P14:20Taylor Hall Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:20Taylor Hall Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (2)SJ 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 62% → 75% +13CHI 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P119:11Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (3), Connor Bedard (5)SJ 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 76% → 87% +12CHI 76% → 87%+12 pts
- P20:43Nick Foligno Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4), Connor Bedard (6)SJ 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 88% → 95% +7CHI 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P218:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (2), Mikael Granlund (2)SJ 1 – 3 CHI · SJ 2% → 8% +6SJ 2% → 8%+6 pts
- P32:19Jason Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (1)SJ 1 – 4 CHI · CHI 94% → 99% +5CHI 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 62%
- ML SJ +155 / CHI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- CHI: Elo 57.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -166
- SJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +7 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +49 Elo | CHI 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.0 | Goals scored | 2.328th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.3 | Margin | −0.823rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.3% | Shot share | 45.0%30th of 32 |
| 7th of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%10th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–3 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.