Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Alec MartinezAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints1
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals2
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:21Matt Coronato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (1)1–3
- P213:32Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (3), Connor Zary (3)1–2
- P116:11Nick Foligno Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (4), Alec Martinez (1)1–1
- P116:01Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (1), Rasmus Andersson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:01Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (1), Rasmus Andersson (4)CHI 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 57% → 73% +16CGY 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P116:11Nick Foligno Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (4), Alec Martinez (1)CHI 1 – 1 CGY · CHI 27% → 43% +16CHI 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P213:32Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (3), Connor Zary (3)CHI 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 55% → 75% +20CGY 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P319:21Matt Coronato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (1)CHI 1 – 3 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 58%
- ML CHI +130 / CGY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- CGY: Elo 64.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CGY -138
- CHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +2 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +100 Elo | CGY 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 5.31st of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +2.34th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3241.9% | Shot share | 49.2%18th of 32 |
| 10th of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 281–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.